I'll start with Best Supporting Actress, since, when it comes to the women, all anybody's really interested in is what they're wearing and whether or not they're able to legally have abortions.
For Best Supporting Actress you can immediately cross out the names Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) and Amy Adams (The Master). Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying they don't have a chance...
Well, I guess I am saying that.
If there were a category for Best Naked Performance By An Actress Past Her Prime, then Helen Hunt (The Sessions) would win hands down. But Best Supporting Actress? Sorry, Helen. By the way, how's your brother, Mike?
I wonder why most actresses, such as Helen Hunt and Joan Collins, wait until they're well past their prime to do a nude scene? This is America, I guess. They can do whatever they want. But why wait until all their equipment is heavier, hairier, and closer to the ground? Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that we should see women as sex objects...
Well, I guess I am saying that.
No, the choice comes down to Anne Hathaway for her role in Les Miserables and Sally Field in Lincoln. Sorry Anne, but the dream you dreamed won't be coming true any time soon. Sally Field, the hottest old lady I wouldn't mind getting jiggy with, will win. It'll go down this way, the members of the Academy will vote for The Girl With Something Extra as a goof, and then, after it's too late to do anything about it, she'll embarrass herself onstage once again.
For Best Supporting Actor I think it's a toss up between any of the five actors nominated. Alan Arkin (Argo) has been in the business a long time, but he won't win because he makes acting look too easy. Plus, doesn't he basically do the same character over and over again?
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) might have had a shot if he hadn't been coasting on his name for the last couple of decades. I can't blame him for doing it. If you have a chance to do some real acting, or a chance to make some real money, I'd go for the money. At the end of your life, does it matter if you're the world's greatest actor if all you can afford to eat at the end of the day is dog food straight out of the can?
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), that guy is so over-rated Justin Bieber laughs at him. I'll say one thing about Philip, at least he doesn't slap his employees in the face, or, if he does, he's not stupid enough to do it on camera. The only shot I'll give him is if the Academy members see the name Hoffman and think they're voting for Dustin.
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), he's always a contender, except this time he looks like a dork. Sorry, but he does. So, since Hollywood is a town obsessed with looks, that gives him no chance.
That leaves us with Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained. That's the man I'll put my money on. And it doesn't hurt that acting next to Jamie Foxx can make Buzz Lightyear look like he's Lawrence Olivier.
For Best Actress, I'll have to go with Jessica Chastain. Since Zero Dark Thirty will come up with its pockets emptier than the American taxpayer's, they'll toss it a bone by awarding her the Oscar. The problem, as I see it, is this: America's the good guy. If this was a movie about how the United States is the bad guy (see Django Unchained), then the Academy would fall all over itself giving it high praise and accolades, but, since we're the good guy getting the bad guy, they'll have no interest in awarding it with anything more than a snub.
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) has no shot. Heck, she didn't even come out naked in it. Like Helen Hunt, she'll probably wait until she's well past the age where anybody will be interested in seeing her naked. Even Rosie O'Donnell.
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beast of the Southern Wild) is the youngest actress to ever be nominated for Best Actress. Will she win? No. I don't see a rapidly aging gaggle of actresses rewarding her for her youth, no matter how much she may deserve it.
That leaves Naomi Watts (The Impossible). Impossible is what I'll call her chances for winning the Oscar.
Which brings us to Best Actor. Now we're talking. Will it be Bruce Willis in A Good Day to Die Hard? Or Sylvester Stallone in Bullet to the Head? Sadly, it will be neither of them, as the Academy is adverse to honoring real men. Had they been playing homosexual cowboys playing with each other's six-shooters, then they may have had a shot. Still, let me tell you one thing, if you think it's easy playing a bad-ass when you're closer to the end of your days than to the beginning, then you'd be wrong.
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)? He's the front runner in this race, even with that hyphenated last name.
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)? Too good-looking to be taken seriously.
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)? For singing instead of acting? Get real.
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)? How did this guy ever become a successful actor? The only way he'll win is if gets the sympathy vote over his brother--the good-looking, talented one--dying tragically after filming one of those Batman movies.
Denzel Washington (Flight)? Sorry, Denzel. This would have been your year, except for the fact that Daniel Day-Lewis is nominated, too. Hollywood, the racist place that it is, loves nothing more than voting for black people, unless they have an opportunity to vote for the white man who freed them. Even if that white man was a Republican.
There are a lot of good directors missing from this selection. Whatsisface from Argo. You know, the guy that used to date Jennifer Lopez. Whatserface from Zero Dark Thirty. You know, the gal who used to be married to James Cameron. What we're left with is Michael Haneke (Amour). A foreign film. I hate foreign films. Every so often the Academy likes to add one to the list to show how enlightened they are, but don't be fooled... Hollywood hates foreign films even more than I do. Why? Because there's no money in foreign films. The profits go somewhere else. Hollywood doesn't mind your money going somewhere other than your pockets via the taxes your government confiscates from you, but God forbid their money should find its way into someone else's wallet. Since Amour won't win, neither will its director. Whoever he is.
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) directed, at least in my opinion, the single best film I never made the effort to go see.
Ang Lee (Life of Pi). I don't think the Academy has ever forgiven him for Hulk. I know I haven't.
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) may have had a shot, but he forgot to add the scene where all the women do an impromptu dance routine while singing a catchy tune from the 60's.
I don't think anybody's doubting that this is Steven Spielberg's year for directing his cure for insomnia, Lincoln. I'm not saying it's a boring movie, but if I wanted to hear endless talking about a subject I have no interest in I would have just spent the evening at home with my wife and saved myself some cash. So Spielberg it is. Maybe, when he accepts his Oscar, he'll throw in an apology for the last Indiana Jones movie.
And now it's time for Best Picture!
To be honest, I don't know why they call it Best Picture. A picture can be a movie or a single image captured on film or something my kids bring home from school that I'm required by law to show off on my refrigerator. A movie, however, is a movie, and can't be mistaken for anything else. The word "movie," however, is considered in Hollywood to be a word for the masses, and, thus, beneath them. "Picture" is more of an elitist term. What Hollywood lacks in education, they try to make up for by being pretentious. Having said all that...
And the winner is: Beasts of the Southern Wild! It's not because Lincoln is not a good film. It is a good film. In fact, it may even be a great film. The problem is, no one's ever stayed awake long enough to find out. Who knew Abraham Lincoln was such a bag of wind? The one line they left out of the movie was Lincoln's opponents telling him, "If we vote for your 13th Amendment, will you please shut up?" When John Wilkes Booth shot him in the head, it wasn't because he disagreed with Lincoln's politics, it was because Lincoln wouldn't shut up.
Beasts of the Southern Wild will also win because Hollywood likes to surprise us every year by choosing small films, such as Chariots of Fire, Shakespeare in Love, The King's Speech, and other films you don't remember.
Quick, who was last year's winner?
Yeah, that's what I thought.
For the record, it was The Artist.
That leaves us with Amour, another small film that nobody's seen, but with the distinct disadvantage of being from France. Personally, I don't hate the French. Unfortunately, everybody else does.
Argo. Didn't see it.
Django Unchained. Black man good. White man bad. Okay, I get it.
Les Miserables. Miserables was what I was watching this musical yawn-fest.
Life of Pi. This is less a movie, and more a description of Oprah Winfrey's diet.
Silver Linings Playbook. I was distracted throughout this whole movie wondering if Jennifer Lawrence is going to wait until she's fifty before she does a nude scene.
Zero Dark Thirty. I read in Esquire magazine that the actual SEAL Team Six soldier who killed Osama bin Laden has been screwed over royally by the same U.S. government you think is going to take such good care of you. He left the service last summer and received squat. No pension. No health care. No protection for him or his family from an angry al-Qaeda looking for revenge. All that, and five dollars a gallon gasoline by summertime.
Aren't you glad you voted for Obama now? Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that Obama doesn't care...
Well, I guess I am saying that.